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The technical study of Elliott Wave theory and the Fibanocci
sequence is vast, intensive and highly subjective. There is
a technical tool or series of measure that allows this study
to be applied and used in an abridged form.
The Fibanocci sequence was discovered in the 16th century by
an Italian mathematician of the same name. It is derived from
a series of two successive numbers added to each other,
beginning from zero. The numbers are 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,
89 and 144. Each number added to the prior sum forms the next.
These base numerals divided create the percentages of 1.00,
.50, .38 and .66 - the basis of retracement sequence.
As base numbers increase it's divisor percentage narrowly
fluctuates above & below .618, considered to be the mathematical
"golden ratio". This quotient is found to appear in all manner
of the universe including architecture, biology, engineering
and science among many others.
Ralph Elliott was an individual who became fascinated with
market action late in life while confined by illness to his
home. During the mid-1940s Elliott published numerous works
on the topic of "market wave theory". His research and
observation uncovered a definite pattern of price action similar
to the structure of the universe, growth of living organisms
and rhythm of ocean waves.
It was his opinion that all financial markets grew over time
under the same natural law everything in existence is held
subject to. The resulting study has become incredibly
extensive and open to great debate in the half-century after.
As traders, we can identify "lulls" in such market waves by
calculating these key percentages based on the sum total of
distance between the most recent market low price at close
versus the nearest high closing price. Projected into the
future, the levels near 38% become the first price magnet
followed by 50% and 62% of the recent move up or down. This
can be done manually or with drawing tool features on advanced
charting services as depicted below.
In a nutshell, Elliott wave theory is based on the assumption
that market action ebbs and flows in predictable patterns
just like everything known to man. One can learn the study of
identifying these waves of growth or rhythms of the market
based on the Fibanocci scale. Without detailing this exhaustive
subject at length, let's view some recent examples and learn
how to apply them in our own technical study:
(daily chart, INDU)
As the Dow Industrial Average moved from a low near the 9800
range to a subsequent high of 11,200+ we can measure by marking
key Fibanocci numerators (38%, 50% and 62%) future price action
of support and resistance. This can provide us great insight on
entry and exit points near reversal areas in the broad market.
These price-magnet levels are also popular points for investors
and traders to place protective stop and also buy-to-open stops
near as well. This natural human behavior based on technical
tools can further affect market action as the buy/sell orders
are reached.
It appears the levels near 10,540 and 10,375 are important
areas of support in the event of further market correction from
here. 10,720 is holding the market's recent action over the past
several sessions in this example.
(weekly chart, INDU)
A weekly chart of the INDU identifies significant levels of
support in the event of a major market correction. An extreme
move to the downside should find strong support near 9700 and
major help at the 9200 range. A test of either together with
bullish technical tools converging could be viewed as extremely
strong buy opportunities.
(weekly chart, JDSU)
When JDSU made an ascent from the $20 level to it's highs near
$142, few traders envisioned a revisit of the $80 range. We could
consider a return to the $80 - $95 price levels excellent buying
opportunities with solid technical support.
(weekly chart, JPM)
JP Morgan tested the 62% retracement level near $105 several
times from October 1999 through March 2000. JPM was a good
buy near the 50% and 38% levels but may be nearing considerable
resistance at the recent highs of $142. A price breakout above
that range on strong volume may be the next buy signal for
prudent traders. A return to any retracement lines could offer
the same.
(weekly chart, CSCO)
Cisco Systems' rally from 38% mark at $55 was the last solid
entry for this stock to date. Price resistance is being met at
$70 with the all-time high near $82 ahead. A return to any
Fibanocci zones would have long-term buying potential, all
other factors concurring.
Without question there is merit to the technical study of
Fibanocci and Elliot Wave. We can choose to study these topics
in depth to explore the inner workings or simply opt to utilize
them together with other forecasting tools. In any case, the use
of these equations can help us forecast future price and market
action.
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