Certain patterns and formations identified within price charts
can indicate future movement with accuracy. Three of the most
common are flags, pennants and triangles or wedges.
Normal price action as the underlying moves up or down creates
these patterns. Periods of consolidation or rest occur after
rallies or declines have moved over time. Clues given by the
size, shape, location and duration of such patterns allow us
to anticipate and measure future price action.
A "flag" is described by having price action contained within
two slanting, parallel lines for a short duration. The
"flagpole" is considered to run from the highest upper and
lower corners of the formation. A flag flying from left to
right is a bull flag while a flag flying from right to left
is a bear flag.
Flagpole on the left = bull flag. Flagpole on the right = bear
flag. This becomes second nature as you picture flags on a chart
hanging from their poles in your mind.
A "pennant" formation is akin to flags but the upper & lower
lines are shaped more to a point instead of rectangular. The
same principle applies concerning 'flight' direction and pole
position.
Triangles and wedges are formations that may develop over long
periods of time. Price action consolidates into tight ranges
that shape different style forms.
An ascending triangle or wedge will have a rising lower line
of support with a flat (or nearly so) upper resistance line.
This happens when prices continue to make higher lows as buyers
prevent sellers from keeping prices down. An eventual break in
Descending triangles or wedges are just the opposite. Continuous
lower highs create a declining upper line as sellers gradually
push price action down. A breakout of this pattern is favored to
the downside.
Symmetrical wedges have nearly equal upper and lower trendlines.
An equity making higher lows and lower highs is squeezed towards
the point where a breakout can move to either direction. There is
a slight bias in the wedge breakout favoring a move that
continues prior market direction, but astute traders wait for
confirmation before entering new trades.
Future price targets can be predicted with uncanny accuracy by
measuring certain parts of a formation and projecting that into
the breakout's direction.
Technicians measure a distance in price during the first leg of
a flag or pennant and add that price or point total to the
breakout mark for a target the move should hit or follow through
to. Measuring the widest gap in a triangle or wedge, gives a
sum total of price or points that the new move should reach when
applied to the breakout mark. The following examples should
help clarify this.
Let's explore some formations on weekly, daily and hourly
charts:
(daily chart, PDLI)
Protein Design Labs Inc. formed a bull flag that hangs from left
to right. The left "leg" of the flag measured from a high near
$120 to a low of $55. That is a $65 spread we expect to cover
if the price breaks out soon. Sure enough, prices break out at
$80, move up to $90 and pull back several times before reaching
the target of $145 (65 + 80 = 145).
(hourly chart, PDLI)
On the hourly chart, PDLI clearly broke the wedge picture above
near the $160 level. Considering this wedge has a distance of
$40 measured from the widest part, we project the stock to
reach the $200 range from there (40 + 160 = 200)
(weekly chart, Dow)
What appeared to be a "bear flag" hanging from right to left
failed to breakout on the downside. A failed formation is a
very strong indicator of market strength to the direction of
the failure, as witnessed here in the Dow. If we measure the
two bull flags we'll find they both reached the projected
price targets.
The symmetrical wedge on the Dow spans an incredible 2,000
points! Time will tell if that projected target is hit when
the index eventually breaks out and runs.
(hourly chart, MSFT)
Microsoft formed an ascending bullish wedge after falling to new recent lows for the issue. All those higher lows proved eager buyers were out-muscling the sellers. The breakout from here suggests continued moves to the upside.
(chart, RTRSY)
Reuters Group PLC showed a bearish pennant hanging right to left
and a bearish flag as well. Can you envision the flagpoles? Did
each formation reach the price point it forecast from point of
breakout?
Undoubtedly, these chart formations are essential for all traders to identify. They help forecast future direction and also moves within larger trend ranges. Formations can help predict price target and distance as well. Become adept at spotting them in your chart applications and enjoy the advantage they provide.